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Risk & Uncertainty

Monte Carlo Supply Chain Simulation

A single warehouse faces random daily demand and random supplier lead times. We roll the dice over many simulated days and thousands of trials to reveal the distribution of service level, stockouts and cost - not just one lucky average.

Parameters

units / day (mean)
std deviation of daily demand
avg days for a replenishment to arrive
std deviation of lead time (days)
place an order when stock falls to this
how much we order each time

Results Ready 0 trials

–
Trials below 95% target
–
Avg on-hand inventory
–
Avg total cost
Service level distribution
trials by service %95% target line
One sample trial - stock over time
on-hand stockreorder pointstockout day
Set your parameters and press Run simulation. Each trial replays the same policy against fresh random demand and lead times, so you see the full range of what could happen - the essence of Monte Carlo.
Worst-case service (5th percentile)–
Median service (50th)–
Best-case service (95th)–
Avg orders placed / trial–
Avg units short / trial–

About this tool

Monte Carlo SC Simulation

The concept

Monte Carlo turns uncertain inputs into full outcome distributions instead of single numbers.

How it works

Random draws of demand and lead time run through the model thousands of times.

Winning strategy

Decide from percentiles, not means - the tail is where plans fail.

estimate = distribution over N random trials
Monte CarloPercentileUncertaintyTrials